Circular redirection of protein flows in Ukraine’s agri-food sector towards deeper-processed products
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26661/2522-1566/2026-3/37-01Keywords:
circular economy, protein flows, sunflower meal, soybean meal, protein balance, deep processing, export net back, feed security, Ukraine’s food security, strategic managementAbstract
The study addresses the lack of a tool for comparing the economic result of deeper processing of sunflower and soybean meal with the opportunity cost of the existing export route and the cost of screening suitable feedstock. A material-and-protein flow model is proposed that combines the national balance identity, contractual and laboratory screening, product output, protein mass and a normalised route netback. Its management output is the identification of screening scale, break-even thresholds and margin cushions for rejecting economically fragile routes before full investment appraisal. The empirical base consists of FAS/Kyiv Post New balance estimates for MY 2024/25, treated as a coherent institutional dataset rather than official USDA statistics. Under the baseline coverage of 25% of exports, suitable feedstock equals 0.8988 million tonnes, product output 0.4458 million tonnes and protein in the product 0.2804 million tonnes; the combined incremental margin of the two routes equals USD 23.60 million. Break-even normalised product netbacks are USD 1,031 per tonne for the sunflower route and USD 959 per tonne for the soybean route, leaving cushions of only 6.3% and 4.1%. A 100-thousand-tonne product line requires actual processing of 7.4% of sunflower-meal exports or 7.2% of soybean-meal exports, while contractual and laboratory screening must cover 13.4% and 9.7% of the respective flows. Unchanged recorded domestic use is imposed as a feed-related constraint, whereas circularity requires separate verification of residual fractions, water, energy and effluents. The model supports pre-investment screening and pilot-route selection; it does not replace project-level techno-economic or investment appraisal.
JEL Classification: М21, Q12, Q18.
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