Trade cooperation between Ukraine and Romania in the context of military transformation of foreign trade

Abstract

The study addresses the transformation of trade cooperation between Ukraine and Romania under the conditions of the full-scale Russian invasion and the restructuring of Ukraine’s foreign trade. Since 2022, Romania has acquired a multidimensional role for Ukraine as a neighbouring market, an alternative transit corridor, a logistics hub, an energy supplier, and an institutional partner within the European Union. The purpose of the research is to identify the main trends, structural changes, constraints, and prospects of Ukrainian-Romanian trade cooperation and to determine whether wartime logistical interaction is developing into a long-term model of strategic economic partnership. The methodology is based on systemic, comparative, and structural analysis of trade indicators, commodity flows, logistics infrastructure, agricultural trade restrictions, and financial support mechanisms. The empirical basis includes analytical and statistical materials of the European Commission, the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, the State Customs Service of Ukraine, GMK Center, Reuters, the European Investment Fund, the Centre for Economic Strategy, and Diia.Business. The findings demonstrate a substantial transformation of bilateral trade: Ukrainian exports to Romania increased sharply in 2022–2023 but declined in 2024–2025, while imports from Romania increased, resulting in a negative trade balance for Ukraine in 2025. The Port of Constanța and the Danube corridor remain critical for Ukrainian exports, particularly agricultural commodities, while Romania’s role as a supplier of energy resources, equipment, construction materials, and services has strengthened. The study is limited by differences among statistical databases and the difficulty of separating actual bilateral imports from transit flows. The practical value of the research lies in identifying priorities for infrastructure modernization, customs digitalization, diversification of Ukrainian exports, resolution of agricultural trade disputes, and deeper Romanian participation in Ukraine’s reconstruction. The originality of the study consists in interpreting these processes as a transition from crisis-driven transit cooperation toward a broader strategic economic partnership.

JEL Classification: F14, F15, F51.