The structure and management of human capital accumulation sources in Ukraine under demographic losses and spatial dispersion of the labour force

Abstract

To identify and structure the sources of human capital accumulation in Ukraine and to determine management priorities for sustaining them under demographic losses and spatial dispersion of the labour force caused by the full-scale war. The study combines human capital theory with demographic, spatial and institutional analysis. Systemic, comparative and structural-functional methods are applied together with content analysis of official statistics, international organisations’ reports and Ukrainian scholarly research for 2019–2025. Sources are classified by four criteria: origin, spatial localisation, function and manageability. The classical structure of human capital accumulation has become multi-contour under the combined effects of demographic contraction, forced migration and internal displacement. Education, health and family reproduction remain basic endogenous sources, but their reproductive capacity has weakened. The paper distinguishes six types of channels: basic endogenous, compensatory endogenous, externalised, digitally transnational, blocked and potential post-war. The working hypothesis is confirmed partially and qualitatively: the resilience of the system depends on combining basic and compensatory channels, while a full quantitative test is precluded by wartime data gaps. Wartime gaps in demographic statistics, different methodologies for measuring displaced populations and the lack of fully comparable labour-market series constrain precise causal and point estimates. Quantitative indicators are therefore used as contextual evidence for structural analysis rather than as exact measures of the national human-capital stock. The typology and the accompanying management matrix can support a management-oriented map of human-capital sources at national, regional and organisational levels and help differentiate education, employment, veteran reintegration, IDP integration and return-connectivity policies. The findings are relevant to maintaining access to education and health services, social cohesion and the prevention of long-term deskilling. The paper conceptualises wartime human-capital accumulation as a dynamic system of manageable contours and links each type of source to a specific risk, actor, instrument and monitoring indicator.

JEL: J24, J11, J61, O15